As you know, the U.S. has refused to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and has made statements officially supporting the territorial integrity of Georgia after last year’s war with Russia. The news that Russia will be building up a military presence there is sure to prompt an American reaction. According to this report in The Washington Post:

Speaking on the anniversary of his nation’s victory over Georgia in a five-day war last year, Putin said the Kremlin planned to spend nearly $500 million to build a base in the separatist enclave and reinforce its de facto border with Georgia. [...] His remarks and appearance in Abkhazia underscored Russia’s growing foothold in what once was Georgian territory and highlighted the sharp differences that remain between Moscow and Washington despite the Obama administration’s efforts to “reset” bilateral relations.

But what kind of reaction can we expect from the Obama Administration? This analysis from Ariel Cohen, Senior Research Fellow at The Heritage Foundation, examines Vice-President Biden’s visit to to Ukraine and Georgia last month for clues on the U.S. relationship to the region and suggests to me that something less than a strong response is likely:

In a speech before the Georgian parliament, Biden correctly rejected Russia’s claims to a 19th-century-style sphere of influence. He delivered a message that the U.S. is seeking a free, secure, democratic, and united Georgia. Yet again, he fell short of operational details. Biden’s call to the world not to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is the minimum Washington can do, yet the Vice President rejected any “physical security guarantees” to Georgia in case of a Russian attack. Nor did he articulate any concrete roadmap intended to restore Georgia’s sovereignty and hold Moscow to its commitments to the Medvedev-Sarkozy accords of August 2008, which call for the restoration of the status quo ante along Georgia’s borders.

Cohen outlines four specific steps the U.S. could take to reassure allies in the region while maintaining good relations with Russia. As much as they all make sense, I was struck more by his comment that Biden’s visit in itself, rather than having Obama visit, sent a signal stronger than any speech that the U.S. was distancing itself from the region. Could it be that the U.S. need for Russian strategic cooperation in other areas of the world (Iran, Afghanistan, nuclear arms treaties) will prompt us to accept the de facto independence of the former Georgian territories?

Photo Credit: Gulf Times