The U.S. is working with allies to increase pressure on Iran leading up to a possible imposition of new sanctions over the issue of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. This news-wire report from Reuters notes that the U.S. is in the preliminary stages of drafting a new sanctions resolution:
France and the United States have both prepared informal papers outlining the kinds of punitive measures against Iran the 15-nation Security Council could approve. Senior U.S. and French officials are planning to discuss these ideas with their British and German colleagues by telephone later this week. Once the four have identified the outlines of a possible sanctions proposal, it will be put to Russia and China, which have been reluctant to punish Tehran in the past and worked hard to dilute proposed measures before they were voted on. The full six are also planning a telephone call later this week, though China has yet to confirm its participation. Once the five permanent Security Council members and Germany — often referred to as the “P5+1″ — agree on elements for a sanctions resolution, they can submit it to the full council and prepare a draft resolution to be voted on.
President Obama has emphasized his determination to pursue a diplomatic resolution to this nuclear crisis and the above makes clear that every effort is being made to provide both incentives and sanctions meant to move (or manage) this crisis towards a peaceful outcome. But what if it’s not enough to change Iran’s behavior? This analysis by Carnegie scholar Robert Kagan suggests that recent domestic instability inside Iran may provide a Plan B:
Regime change is more important than any deal the Obama administration might strike with Iran’s present government on its nuclear program. Even if Tehran were to accept the offer made last year to export some of its low-enriched uranium, this would be a modest step down a long, uncertain road. Such a minor concession is not worth abandoning the push for real change. [...] What is more likely: that Iran’s present leadership will agree to give up its nuclear program or that these leaders will be toppled? A year ago, the answer seemed obvious. [...] These probabilities have shifted since June 12. Now the odds of regime change are higher than the odds the present regime will ever agree to give up its nuclear program. With tougher sanctions, public support from Obama and other Western leaders, and programs to provide information and better communications to reformers, the possibility for change in Iran may never be better.
It’s encouraging that the situation in Iran seems to be presenting the U.S. and allies with more options, not less, and that the chances of peacefully resolving this conflict have increased.







