U.S. Role in the World

I’m having a busy Monday, so I’m reaching deep into the archives for this article (Business Week - Who Will Rule The 21st Century?) about why the U.S. need not fear an ascendant China or India in the 21st Century. The report is from July ‘07, so it will be interesting to read your thoughts on this analysis of U.S. leadership in the post-Beijing Olympics era. Does Jack Welch’s argument still hold up one year later? 

As the Olympics begin today all eyes are on China. This is really China’s big coming out party, their “we have arrived” moment. China has already arrived though, in military and economic terms China has been a great power for some time now, pop culture is merely catching up to the reality. The rise of China has impacted many areas of U.S. foreign policy and in this essay (Balancing Asia’s Rivals), Prof. Joseph Nye analyzes the impact of growing Chinese power on the U.S. relationship with India and other Asian countries.

This week we witnessed a dramatic showdown in Indian domestic politics between the Prime Minister and various factions who are against a proposed nuclear deal with the United States. Since India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and has developed a nuclear weapons capability, the U.S. has been working on a treaty that will address India’s desire to use nuclear energy to accommodate one of the most dynamic economies on the planet while safeguarding India’s nuclear weapons program and curbing the proliferation of nuclear technology. If that sounds like a lot of concerns to address, it is, and such a complex treaty is proving to be difficult for India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to get passed in his parliament. His opponents in the always factious realm in Indian politics fear that this treaty will make India beholden to the U.S. and undermine India’s sovereignty. The government survived a confidence vote this week bringing the nuclear deal closer to approval (The Economist - A tarnished triumph):

After a rancorous, sometimes riotous, two-day debate on its most contentious policy, a nuclear co-operation agreement with America, India’s government on July 22nd won a parliamentary vote of confidence. This did not ensure the survival of the vexed agreement, on which George Bush and India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, shook hands in July 2005. It still needs the approval of several bodies, including the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). But the government’s victory, by 275 votes to 256, with ten abstentions, has probably saved it from strangulation by its Indian opponents.

The deal also has to be approved by the U.S Congress, and time is running out for approval before President Bush leaves office. If Congress approves the deal it will mark a new stage in U.S-India relations. I’m sure many of you remember that India has not always been an ally of the U.S. and sided with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The World Security Network offers this report that will help you get up to speed on the emerging strategic partnership between the U.S. and India.

Why is the U.S. working with India on their nuclear program while challenging Iran on theirs? A good answer to this question would touch on the fact that India is not a signatory to the NPT, so the U.S. is working with India on a treaty that will anchor their nuclear program in a framework of international monitoring and oversight. The U.S. is acting as a global leader to address the issue of nuclear proliferation and bring a country outside the scope of nuclear rules into a treaty arrangement. Iran is a signatory to the NPT, so they are already obligated and they enjoy the rights (which they are asserting) and obligations (which are in dispute) imposed by that treaty. Other explanations we could offer would note that Iranian leaders have repeatedly called for the destruction of another country (Israel) and exported a religious militancy that does not lend itself to traditional forms of deterrence. India appears to be on the path to becoming a responsible nuclear power and that, I think, is the difference between the two.