U.S. Role in the World

Continuing with the theme of the last post, here is a video of North Korea destroying a water cooling tower at a nuclear facility as part of the recent nuclear disclosure agreement with the U.S. and the other six-party countries. U.S. State Department officials and IAEA representatives were invited to observe the event.

According to this report (CNN - N. Korea destroys nuclear reactor tower) the event is being recognized as a milestone in the disarmament effort:

Nuclear experts say that the plant’s destroyed central water-cooling tower would take a year or longer to rebuild if North Korea were to try using the plant again. “This is a critical piece of equipment for the nuclear reactor,” said analyst John Wolfsthal, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has been following North Korea since the 1980s. “Without this facility, the reactor can’t operate and can’t produce more plutonium for weapons.”

As I mentioned in the previous post, these are positive developments, but many issues remain to be addressed, including the possible proliferation of nuclear technology to other countries. The Carnegie Endowment and the National Committee on North Korea recently held a joint discussion on North Korea’s nuclear program in which these concerns were raised (Policy Options for North Korea’s Nuclear Program):

Gallucci expressed approval of recent breakthroughs with North Korea but remained highly dissatisfied with Pyongyang’s lack of disclosure regarding the Syrian connection. Ford argued that varied policy approaches to North Korea have failed, necessitating more innovative policy solutions from the next U.S. administration.

The full transcript of the Carnegie event can be found here (PDF).

After months of multilateral negotiations with the U.S. and other countries, North Korea today publicly detailed the extent of their long secret nuclear program and President Bush quickly reciprocated by removing North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism (Washington Post - North Korea Details Nuclear Program):

President Bush today lifted some trade sanctions against North Korea and acted to remove the country from a list of states that sponsor terrorism, after the isolated Stalinist regime turned over a key document detailing its rogue nuclear program. Nearly seven years after Bush described North Korea as part of “an axis of evil” and less than two years after Pyongyang stunned the world by exploding a small nuclear device, Bush said the receipt of the nuclear disclosure marked the start of an “action for action” process meant to end with the full dismantling of the country’s nuclear facilities and weapons.

This is very good news and represents a rare foreign policy victory for President Bush and an affirmation of Secretary Rice’s efforts to gently nudge the U.S. back to a more multilateral policy after what many saw as the unilateralism of Bush’s first term.

Sounding a cautionary note though on this breakthrough, Ted Galen Carpenter, The Cato Institute’s Vice-President for Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, notes (For Media):

Both Pyongyang’s declaration and Washington’s response are modestly worthwhile steps that maintain the momentum in the diplomatic process aimed at getting North Korea to end its effort to acquire a nuclear arsenal. But one must be realistic about that diplomatic process; the declaration itself apparently contains some major holes. Pyongyang has not been required to disclose whether it has already built nuclear weapons, and there is no provision for international inspections to determine whether North Korea has constructed nuclear sites other than the known reactor at Yongbyon. It is also important to remember that the North Korean regime has violated every previous agreement it has signed on nuclear issues. Given that record, there remains a very real danger that Pyongyang is engaging in a diplomatic charade while it continues a quest for a nuclear-weapons capability. There is also the worrisome evidence of North Korea’s proliferation activities, including its apparent transfer of nuclear-related technology to Syria. At best, the new developments deserve no more than one-and-a-half cheers.

Time will tell whether North Korea is genuinely interested in disarmament but we can certainly take these recent developments (in which the U.S gained information and access) as grounds for cautious optimism. Score one for diplomacy.